Cup preview: 2023 Championship Race (Phoenix)
The Cup series championship will be decided tomorrow at Phoenix. In the mix are Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, and William Byron.
Stats
When you look at all races this season, it's hard to argue with this final four. Byron won the most races in the Cup series this year with six, and as you can see in the table below, dominated in all the main ways we can look at results. All four of the drivers won multiple races, and they all ranked in the top-5 in average running position and finishes in the top-10. The stats:
| Driver | Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | ARP | AFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bell | 2 (8) | 10 (5) | 19 (2) | 10.78 (4) | 12.29 (2) |
| Ryan Blaney | 3 (3) | 7 (11) | 17 (4) | 11.17 (5) | 14.43 (7) |
| William Byron | 6 (1) | 14 (1) | 20 (1) | 9.8 (2) | 11.17 (1) |
| Kyle Larson | 4 (2) | 14 (1) | 17 (4) | 9.85 (3) | 14.97 (12) |
Ranks in parentheses
On short tracks, the results are less impressive. Byron feasted on intermediate tracks, averaging a top-5 finish (4.73). His only short track win this year came at Phoenix, which is sure to play into the narrative. The other drivers were more impressive on short tracks this year. Bell failed to win a race on these tracks but is a clear second best in this quartet. Short track stats:
| Driver | Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | ARP | AFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bell | 0 (7) | 2 (7) | 5 (3) | 9.55 (2) | 11.38 (4) |
| Ryan Blaney | 1 (3) | 3 (4) | 4 (6) | 11.87 (6) | 12.13 (8) |
| William Byron | 1 (3) | 2 (7) | 3 (11) | 10.19 (4) | 14.88 (14) |
| Kyle Larson | 2 (1) | 5 (1) | 6 (1) | 10.5 (5) | 8.5 (2) |
Similar results when we look at the four drivers on short tracks in the entire NextGen era:
| Driver | Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | ARP | AFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bell | 2 (1) | 7 (3) | 12 (1) | 9.61 (4) | 9.71 (2) |
| Ryan Blaney | 1 (7) | 7 (3) | 10 (5) | 10.44 (7) | 11.82 (7) |
| William Byron | 2 (1) | 5 (8) | 8 (8) | 9.95 (5) | 11.82 (7) |
| Kyle Larson | 2 (1) | 8 (1) | 11 (3) | 9.07 (2) | 10.35 (4) |
The group gets much tighter when we pull in the 2023 advanced stats:
| Driver | cPOMS | GR-LR | SS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bell | 0.9824 (2) | 0.53 (6) | 3.83 (4) |
| Ryan Blaney | 0.981 (4) | 0.56 (5) | 1.89 (8) |
| William Byron | 0.9807 (5) | 0.31 (9) | 6.4 (2) |
| Kyle Larson | 0.979 (9) | 0.66 (2) | 5.16 (3) |
The takeaways:
- Larson definitely has the ability to move and defend, he has high-end speed, but his average speed isn't great.
- Bell is pretty well-rounded.
- Byron has elite high-end speed, but I worry about that retention rating and his ability to get through the field. We saw him struggle with that at Martinsville.
- Blaney is well around but lacks a singular high-end feature. Everyone else is second to Denny Hamlin in some aspect of racing; Blaney's best feature is fourth best in the series.
Champions
We can look to recent champions to see what matters:
| Driver | Season | AFP | ARP | cPOMS | GR-LR | SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr. | 2017 | 8.83 (2) | - | - | - | - |
| Joey Logano | 2018 | 10.82 (5) | - | - | - | - |
| Kyle Busch | 2019 | 5.36 (3) | - | - | - | - |
| Chase Elliott | 2020 | 10.1 (4) | 5.74 (2) | 0.9838 (1) | 0.95 (1) | 7.39 (4) |
| Kyle Larson | 2021 | 6.78 (3) | 7.68 (6) | 0.984 (3) | 0.91 (2) | 8.06 (3) |
| Joey Logano | 2022 | 13.33 (11) | 9.42 (5) | 0.9773 (10) | 0.52 (8) | 3.16 (7) |
I'm inclined to take the 2022 Logano championship as an aberration. His ARP ranks one spot better than 2021 Larson's, even though it's nearly two positions worse. That being said, this year appears to be following a similar pattern. The average finishes and average running positions are all worse than the historical norms, save for Larson's AFP. This indicates a tight field across the board.
Moving to the advanced stats, what's clear from 2020 and 2021 is that the champion needed speed and the ability to use it to get through the field. Elliott was #1 in both, Larson third and second. Nobody can say that this year. Larson has the net retention and high-end speed but lacks the average speed. Bell has the average speed but isn't a star in the other areas.
Phoenix
This year's spring Phoenix race was a retention race, with the top seven retention drivers in the race all finishing in the top-7 in the race.
| Driver | Start | Finish | ARP | cPOMS | SS | GR-LR | PGAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bell | 5 | 6 | 4.55 (3) | 0.989 (4) | 5.17 (6) | 2.22 (3) | 12.45 (4) |
| Ryan Blaney | 8 | 2 | 7.62 (8) | 0.9869 (6) | 1.98 (10) | 2.17 (6) | 11.03 (7) | William Byron | 3 | 1 | 2.52 (2) | 0.9914 (1) | 12.38 (2) | 2.20 (4) | 12.97 (3) |
| Kyle Larson | 1 | 4 | 1.42 (1) | 0.9893 (3) | 16.02 (1) | 2.19 (5) | 16.47 (2) |
Byron and Larson were the clear standouts.
We can also look at the four drivers in the NextGen era at Phoenix:
| Driver | ASP | ARP | AFP | cPOMS | SS | GR-LR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bell | 8.67 (5) | 11.41 (11) | 14.0 (9) | 0.9825 (11) | 2.0 (9) | 0.43 (9) | Ryan Blaney | 3.67 (1) | 4.64 (1) | 2.67 (1) | 0.9887 (1) | 9.38 (1) | 0.72 (3) |
| William Byron | 4.67 (3) | 5.48 (3) | 8.33 (6) | 0.988 (3) | 8.22 (3) | 0.62 (7) |
| Kyle Larson | 4.0 (2) | 5.04 (2) | 15.67 (12) | 0.9871 (4) | 9.17 (2) | 0.7 (5) |
That brings Blaney into the picture.
I tend to believe that single race results at a track won't repeat. This is borne out in the results. In 2020, Elliott finished seventh; in 2021, Larson finished seventh; in 2022, Logano finished eighth. So unless you think those results imply Bell, who finished sixth this spring, is the favorite, I'd disregard the past Phoenix results as anything other than a slight weighting for the short track stats laid out earlier.
Picks
First of all, if Byron is in contention at the end of the race - and it is an if - he's a force to be reckoned with. This is the tightest race I've seen in the Phoenix championship race era. My top pick is Larson due to his retention and top speed. The others have a definite shot.
I'll take the championship four and Hamlin in the top five. Bubba Wallace and Ty Gibbs top-10.