Hailie Deegan to Indy NXT
Deegan needs to find a place to run and develop. She's shown she can grow when given a role.
Hailie Deegan has announced she'll be racing full-time in IndyCar feeder series Indy NXT. She'll be driving the 38 for HMD Motorsports, which is owned by Henry Malukas, father of David.
Deegan does not have a strong track record on road courses. She doesn't have a strong track record anywhere. In 17 Xfinity series starts this year, she has an average starting position / average running position / average finish triple slash line of 29.13 / 27.15 / 27.38. She's driven the AM Racing 15 car part-time, which overall has a 27.07 / 26.69 (estimated) / 26.62 in 29 starts. When she's not driving, it runs a 24.15 / 26.04 / 25.54: at least a position better without her across the board. She's run three road course races in the Xfinity series this year to a 37.67 / 39.33 / 34.95, with no caution involvements.
But it's her Xfinity rookie year! What about her time in the trucks? On road courses:
| Season | Age | Car | Starts | ASP | ARP | AFP | Succ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | Ford | 3 | 23.00 | 23.60 | 20.33 | 33.3 |
| 2022 | 20 | Ford | 3 | 20.00 | 18.45 | 25.33 | 33.3 |
| 2023 | 21 | Ford | 2 | 21.00 | 16.45 | 21.00 | 50.0 |
| Date | Track | Car | Finish | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/19/2021 | DAYTONA Road Course | 1 | 28 | Running |
| 05/22/2021 | COTA | 1 | 14 | Running |
| 08/07/2021 | Watkins Glen | 1 | 19 | Running |
| 03/26/2022 | COTA | 1 | 34 | Accident |
| 06/11/2022 | Sonoma | 1 | 32 | Accident |
| 07/09/2022 | Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course | 1 | 10 | Running |
| 03/25/2023 | COTA | 13 | 16 | Running |
| 07/08/2023 | Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course | 13 | 26 | Running |
If you squint, you could argue she's improved over time. When she finishes, she can finish mid-pack. But all in all, no, she's not shown much on road courses.
But what might the bull case be for Deegan in Indy NXT? First, five of the fourteen Indy NXT races in 2025 will be on ovals, most of which are short tracks. Second:
| Season | Age | Series | Starts | ASP | AFP | PFAE | Succ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ARCA | 6 | 9.00 | 9.67 | 0.579 | 66.7 |
| 2020 | 18 | ARCA | 20 | 5.85 | 7.30 | 0.967 | 75.0 |
| 2021 | 19 | Trucks | 22 | 17.95 | 20.91 | -3.017 | 31.8 |
| 2022 | 20 | Trucks | 23 | 20.04 | 22.13 | -2.949 | 43.5 |
| 2023 | 21 | Trucks | 23 | 19.17 | 21.04 | -2.023 | 52.2 |
| 2024 | 22 | Xfinity | 17 | 29.00 | 26.82 | -2.734 | 35.3 |
She's shown an ability to improve within a series if given time. Her trucks underlying metrics only improved with experience. Unfortunately, she probably needed another three years to become a competitive driver.
That is the theme of Deegan's career. She has advanced too quickly. She had a good but not great year in ARCA, and moved to trucks. She spent three years trying to pull herself out of the hole her promotion dug for her, and before she could get anywhere close to out, she moved again. Now, she's on the move again. If given time in Indy NXT, we'll see what she can become.