McDowell to Spire
McDowell will give Spire a steady hand – is that enough?
Spire makes it official: Michael McDowell has signed with Spire for multiple years to drive for the team starting in 2025. He will drive the No. 71 car.
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) May 8, 2024
Since the NextGen Cup car was introduced, it's seemed to me that Spire Motorsports saw itself as a team on the rise. This year they're running two talented young drivers in Carson Hocevar and Zane Smith, both of whom I like. Despite the struggles of youth, the team as a whole seems to be (marginally) improving, with Corey LaJoie as their talisman:
| Car # | Season | Starts | Wins | ASP | eARP | AFP | Avg. PFAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 2021 | 36 | 0 | 26.75 | 26.00 | 24.89 | -2.019 |
| 7 | 2022 | 36 | 0 | 28.08 | 24.55 | 24.33 | -0.944 |
| 7 | 2023 | 36 | 0 | 24.67 | 23.20 | 21.17 | 0.165 |
| 7 | 2024 | 12 | 0 | 24.67 | 24.52 | 23.50 | -1.928 |
| 71 | 2024 | 12 | 0 | 25.50 | 27.34 | 28.50 | -6.941 |
| 77 | 2020 | 33 | 0 | 32.45 | 31.51 | 30.82 | -4.050 |
| 77 | 2021 | 36 | 0 | 28.72 | 28.11 | 28.33 | -4.108 |
| 77 | 2022 | 36 | 0 | 32.08 | 29.23 | 26.97 | -0.493 |
| 77 | 2023 | 36 | 0 | 31.92 | 29.47 | 27.56 | -1.442 |
| 77 | 2024 | 12 | 0 | 22.00 | 22.00 | 21.25 | -1.082 |
And so their pairing with McDowell is strange. Here are his numbers:
| Season | Age | Car | Starts | ASP | ARP | AFP | Avg. PFAE | PGAE/100 | GR-LR | SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 32 | 95 | 32 | 23.81 | 22.44 | 23.56 | -0.705 | |||
| 2018 | 33 | 34 | 32 | 23.91 | 24.25 | 24.74 | -2.742 | |||
| 2019 | 34 | 34 | 32 | 20.47 | 25.22 | 25.14 | -5.442 | |||
| 2020 | 35 | 34 | 32 | 24.13 | 23.09 | 23.97 | 0.452 | -8.786 | -0.07 | -10.79 |
| 2021 | 36 | 34 | 31 | 17.06 | 22.08 | 21.45 | -3.785 | -7.121 | -0.19 | -8.53 |
| 2022 | 37 | 34 | 29 | 16.90 | 19.33 | 17.34 | 0.540 | -6.784 | -0.06 | -7.19 |
| 2023 | 38 | 34 | 29 | 16.45 | 18.18 | 19.03 | -1.136 | -4.281 | -0.06 | -3.79 |
| 2024 | 39 | 34 | 10 | 16.60 | 19.77 | 22.00 | -3.861 | -2.528 | -0.18 | -2.88 |
McDowell's negative-to-neutral average PFAE (positions finished above expected) shows that even at his best, he only meets expectations. Most of the time, he underperforms. While Front Row Motorsports cars are improving, he simply keeps up. He isn't the kind of driver who can elevate a program. There's nothing wrong with that unless you're trying to elevate your program from irrelevant to a fringe playoff team.
The pairing is strange from the other side if you take it strictly from an on-track perspective. McDowell has a car he can compete for the playoffs with right now. Without a serious step up from Spire, he'll be further back than he's been in a decade.
Spire could have continued investing in young talent, but have opted for veteran experience with this signing. I suspect they'll run marginally better than they are now with Michael McDowell in a seat, without the upside they'd have if they persisted with their youthful pilots.