Stat Pack: 2024 Cup Series NASCAR Cup Series Championship Preview
Ryan Blaney will go back to back.
@ Phoenix Raceway (1.00 mi)
Picks
Short tracks this year have had a lot of parity. Seven drivers have an average finish between 14 and 16. There is a class of five top drivers who have been better than the others, and it includes Ryan Blaney. Blaney has the fourth-best average running position, the fourth-best average finish, the third-most positions gained above expected, and the fifth-best net rating. His cPOMS, which measures average speed in a context-adjusted way, is second best. Of the final four vying for the Championship, he has been clearly the best.
William Byron is second best. He's been a top-ten short tracker this season. Joey Logano shows flashes in the top but with the 19th-best AFP in the series on short tracks, I don't think he has what it takes. Tyler Reddick is the worst of the four. His strengths are on other disciplines.
The NASCAR playoff format — of which I am favorable — selected three drivers who excelled on intermediates, and one who excelled on short tracks. It's no surprise that the short track ace is the one who won his way into Phoenix at Martinsville.
Justin Barber
Championship prediction: Ryan Blaney
Race winner: Not a championship contender, likely Denny Hamlin or Kyle Larson.