Stat Pack Recap: 2024 Cup Series Straight Talk Wireless 400
Tyler Reddick took the win. We wait for Martinsville to find the final four.
Race: Results | Analytics | Loop Data | Lap-by-lap Download
Qualifying: Results and lap download
Practice: Results and lap download
Tyler Reddick won with a last lap pass. However, the win was not undeserved: he had the race's best average running position.
There were about a half dozen drivers who could've won. Chase Elliott had the best cPOMS — best speed — of the race and best weighted ARP. Ryan Blaney had the best GR-LR. Denny Hamlin had the third best GR-LR and second best cPOMS. Christopher Bell finished fourth.
It's worth noting the backend of the top ten:
- AJ Allmendinger had the most positions gained above expected based on running position (PGAE)
- Carson Hocevar has continued a strong season by finishing ninth. He was top ten in most of the advanced metrics at Homestead
- Ryan Preece has performed like a fringe playoff driver since the playoffs started. His AFP is sixteenth best.
Let's look at the playoffs.
The bubble boys are Byron and Larson, with the former up only seven points over the latter for the last playoff spot. Bell sits 29 points to safety and Hamlin is 18 below. Blaney and Elliott effectively must win. What's going to happen at Martinsville?
All three of Denny Hamlin's wins this season have come on short tracks, with wins at Bristol, Richmond, and Dover across March and April. He has the best short track average running position, the third best average finish (behind Larson and Elliott), the third best cPOMS (Martin Truex Jr. and Larson), and the best GR-LR. For me, he is the best short track race this year (and best overall, for that matter).
The issue that Hamlin faces is that everyone else in the field except Joey Logano and Reddick are also elite contenders for Martinsville. We'll dig in deeper in the race preview later this week, but to answer the question posed above: I have no idea. The playoffs are not over. It's all to play for.
| Driver | Start | Finish | ARP | PGAE | GR-LR | cPOMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Reddick | 1 | 1 | 3.70 | 47.81 | 5.91 | 0.9774 |
| Ryan Blaney | 20 | 2 | 5.41 | 72.08 | 7.08 | 0.9802 |
| Denny Hamlin | 4 | 3 | 5.03 | 42.40 | 6.44 | 0.9802 |
| Christopher Bell | 3 | 4 | 5.61 | 36.09 | 4.35 | 0.9797 |
| Chase Elliott | 7 | 5 | 3.74 | 54.52 | 6.74 | 0.9807 |