Stat Pack: 2024 ROVAL 400 Preview
A large pool of drivers could win what should be an exciting race, but SVG and Chris Buescher stand out as favorites.
@ Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course aka The Roval (2.32 mi)
Entry list notes: AJ Allmendinger and Shane Van Gisbergen are in this race.
Picks
- Winners: William Byron, Alex Bowman, Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher
- Best finishers: Buescher, Bowman, Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick, Michael McDowell. SVG has an AFP of 20.67, Allmendinger is at 21.5.
- Best runners, by weighted average running position: Allmendinger, Buescher, Chastain, Martin Truex, Larson. SVG is seventh-best.
- GR-LR: Buescher, SVG, Truex, Christopher Bell, Larson. Allmendinger is sixth.
- cPOMS: SVG, Larson, Chastain, Bowman, Reddick. Allmendinger is eight-best.
Van Gisbergen is clearly a threat, Allmendinger less so. SVG is a world-class road course racer: he's a favorite to win in any NextGen equipment. I'm not convinced Allmendinger is. He's more one of a number in the second tier of drivers.
Who is in the favorite first tier? For me, it's just Buescher and SVG. The second tier is Truex, Bell, Bowman, Chastain, and Larson — in that order. Then you get the rest mentioned above.
With the NextGen car, I'm particularly partial to GR-LR. More than any other stat, it best captures drivers' ability to get through the field without adjusting for car quality (which is what we want here: equipment matters when we're talking about who will win). That's where the JGR drivers stand out.
For what it's worth, the picks largely hold even going back to the beginning of last year:
| Driver | Starts | Wins | ARP | AFP | GR-LR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Van Gisbergen | 5 | 1 | 9.35 | 14.6 | 3.13 |
| Chris Buescher | 10 | 1 | 12.38 | 7.9 | 2.47 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 10 | 1 | 10.28 | 17.4 | 1.68 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 10 | 1 | 12.53 | 17.3 | 1.67 |
| Christopher Bell | 10 | 0 | 10.34 | 14.7 | 1.57 |
| Chase Elliott | 9 | 0 | 11.83 | 12.33 | 1.42 |
| Kyle Larson | 10 | 1 | 12.44 | 14.2 | 1.42 |
| Kyle Busch | 10 | 0 | 12.95 | 12.2 | 1.37 |
| Michael McDowell | 10 | 1 | 11.43 | 14.7 | 1.28 |
| Ty Gibbs | 10 | 0 | 10.78 | 12.2 | 1.27 |
| William Byron | 10 | 2 | 13.43 | 12.2 | 1.22 |
| Ross Chastain | 10 | 0 | 13.26 | 11.9 | 1.15 |
Via the Lap Raptor race preview page...
Recent Races at Charlotte Road Course
- 2023 Bank of America ROVAL 400 (Oct 8, 2023): RESULTS | ANALYTICS | LOOP DATA
- 2022 Bank of America ROVAL 400 (Oct 9, 2022): RESULTS | ANALYTICS | LOOP DATA
Links
- Past loop data at Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course: LAST SEASON | NEXT GEN | IN DATABASE
- Past loop data on similar tracks (road_course): THIS SEASON | LAST SEASON | NEXT GEN | IN DATABASE
- Analytics at Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course: LAST SEASON | NEXT GEN | IN DATABASE
- Analytics on similar tracks (road_course): THIS SEASON | LAST SEASON | NEXT GEN | IN DATABASE