The Eckes Effect
Christian Eckes is very good. After a full time season of learning, he's turned on the jets in trucks. He's been one of the best drivers in the series since 2021.
Eckes' truck series performance net improves year after year, both in terms of overall performance (see average running position and net rating) and presumed talent via positions finished above expected:
| Season | Age | Car | Starts | ASP | ARP | AFP | PFAE | Avg. PFAE | GR-LR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | 46 | 4 | 8.5 | 13.5 | -5.74 | -1.435 | ||
| 2019 | 18 | 51 | 8 | 4.75 | 10.5 | 3.58 | 0.447 | ||
| 2020 | 19 | 18 | 23 | 6.43 | 7.93 | 12.3 | -25.01 | -1.087 | 1.25 |
| 2021 | 20 | 98 | 10 | 13.3 | 10.78 | 13.2 | 18.91 | 1.891 | 1.25 |
| 2022 | 21 | 98 | 23 | 10.57 | 8.5 | 10.87 | 84.4 | 3.669 | 1.56 |
| 2023 | 22 | 19 | 22 | 8.18 | 7.41 | 11.5 | 56.92 | 2.587 | 1.37 |
| 2024 | 23 | 19 | 6 | 7.5 | 5.59 | 9.67 | 25.08 | 4.18 | 1.28 |
He's moved to McAnally and has corrected their years of floundering. The Eckes Effect is real: his positions finished above expected has far surpassed any of his teammates' and seat ancestors' numbers.
| Car # | Season | Starts | Wins | ASP | AFP | eARP | PFAE | Avg. PFAE | %LL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #19 | 2020 | 23 | 0 | 13.00 | 12.96 | 12.75 | 20.04 | 0.871 | 0.98 |
| #19 | 2021 | 22 | 0 | 16.00 | 19.73 | 16.68 | -57.44 | -2.611 | 2.13 |
| #19 | 2022 | 23 | 0 | 13.87 | 15.17 | 13.95 | 17.95 | 0.780 | 1.44 |
| #91 | 2022 | 23 | 0 | 19.48 | 19.39 | 19.39 | -4.73 | -0.206 | 0.33 |
| #19 | 2023 | 23 | 4 | 8.09 | 11.13 | 8.52 | 67.98 | 2.955 | 10.97 |
| #35 | 2023 | 22 | 0 | 13.27 | 14.18 | 13.02 | 39.37 | 1.790 | 0.00 |
| #19 | 2024 | 6 | 2 | 7.50 | 9.67 | 4.78 | 25.08 | 4.180 | 39.18 |
| #91 | 2024 | 6 | 0 | 12.17 | 15.17 | 11.32 | 4.65 | 0.775 | 0.13 |
His full track record is strong as well:
| Season | Age | Series | Starts | Wins | ASP | AFP | PFAE | Avg. PFAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 15 | CARS | 10 | 0 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 30.13 | 3.013 |
| 2017 | 16 | ARCA | 10 | 0 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 29.85 | 2.985 |
| 2017 | 16 | CARS Pro | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4.67 | 16.15 | 2.692 |
| 2018 | 17 | ARCA | 13 | 3 | 4.85 | 7.31 | 23.16 | 1.782 |
| 2019 | 18 | ARCA | 19 | 4 | 5.11 | 4.84 | 69.98 | 3.683 |
| 2019 | 18 | Trucks | 8 | 0 | 4.75 | 10.5 | 3.58 | 0.447 |
| 2020 | 19 | Trucks | 23 | 0 | 6.43 | 12.3 | -25.01 | -1.087 |
| 2021 | 20 | Trucks | 10 | 1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 18.91 | 1.891 |
| 2022 | 21 | Trucks | 23 | 0 | 10.57 | 10.87 | 84.4 | 3.669 |
| 2023 | 22 | Trucks | 23 | 4 | 8.09 | 11.13 | 67.98 | 2.955 |
| 2024 | 23 | Trucks | 6 | 2 | 7.5 | 9.67 | 25.08 | 4.18 |
He's been a consistently a positive driver, finishing better than he should given his equipment across different series.
My primary concern with Eckes at this point is age. At 23, he's a bit older than one would like to progress up the NASCAR ladder. At worst though, he's a leading NASCAR undercard series driver with potential Cup upside if he makes his way up.