23XI Sticks with Bubba Wallace
The two-time Cup winner has signed a two-year extension with the Denny Hamlin / Michael Jordan team.
From day one Bubba has been an integral part of 23XI. We’re excited to announce that he has signed a multi-year renewal and will continue to play a key role in helping 23XI grow and succeed. #ForwardTogether pic.twitter.com/OMlQWfm6yv
— 23XI Racing (@23XIRacing) September 18, 2024
Bubba Wallace and 23XI Racing have agreed to a two-year contract extension. Wallace has two career Cup wins and has been a borderline playoff driver since joining the team beginning with the 2021 season.
That basic adequacy might seem unacceptable for a two-car team whose other driver just won the regular season championship. However, despite my dislike of Spire's recruitment of Michael McDowell's mediocrity, I think this is a fine match. Statistically speaking, Wallace was more deserving of a playoff spot than a handful of drivers who made it on wins. His average finish had been monotonically increasing from his first full season in 2018 through to 2023. In 2024, he's taken a step back — but at 16.32, it rates as his career second-best. The pattern holds across the board: from 2020 to date, his average running position has improved every year, and from 2018 to date, his success rate has never declined.
| Season | Age | Car | Starts | Wins | ASP | ARP | AFP | Succ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 24 | 43 | 36 | 0 | 24.75 | - | 24.50 | 36.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | 43 | 36 | 0 | 24.33 | - | 23.94 | 36.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | 43 | 36 | 0 | 22.22 | 20.12 | 21.08 | 50.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | 23 | 36 | 1 | 19.94 | 18.24 | 19.67 | 50.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | - | 35 | 1 | 18.43 | 16.17 | 18.29 | 54.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | 23 | 36 | 0 | 12.44 | 13.74 | 15.89 | 63.9 |
| 2024 | 30 | 23 | 28 | 0 | 14.32 | 13.15 | 16.32 | 64.3 |
His advanced metrics again show the same pattern:
| Season | Age | Car | Starts | ASP | ARP | wARP | AFP | PFAE | Succ% | GR-LR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 24 | 43 | 36 | 24.75 | - | - | 24.50 | -2.453 | 36.1 | - |
| 2019 | 25 | 43 | 36 | 24.33 | - | - | 23.94 | -2.306 | 36.1 | - |
| 2020 | 26 | 43 | 36 | 22.22 | 20.12 | 19.83 | 21.08 | -0.532 | 50.0 | 0.13 |
| 2021 | 27 | 23 | 36 | 19.94 | 18.24 | 18.15 | 19.67 | -0.558 | 50.0 | 0.23 |
| 2022 | 28 | - | 35 | 18.43 | 16.17 | 16.04 | 18.29 | 0.196 | 54.3 | 0.42 |
| 2023 | 29 | 23 | 36 | 12.44 | 13.74 | 14.32 | 15.89 | 0.253 | 63.9 | 0.66 |
| 2024 | 30 | 23 | 28 | 14.32 | 13.15 | 12.75 | 16.32 | 0.790 | 64.3 | 0.59 |
Putting aside (perfectly valid) concerns about him not winning in what Reddick has shown is top-class equipment, my biggest concern with Wallace is a lack of specialty. Below is how he rates each track type in the Cup series on a percentile basis (from his Lap Raptor profile). No discipline is particularly strong; his best is short tracks, but no one would consider him a short track ace. The numbers agree: between 2023 and 2024, his short track AFP of 15.35 is 14th best, and his PFAE of 1.01 is 17th best. He does have the series-best success rate on shorts over the same period, indicating consistency, if no flash.
However, credit to Wallace for continuing to improve. He's rewarding the investment that 23XI has made in him. A two-year deal is appropriate for a driver in his early 30s to show he can continue to improve. If he does, expect 2-4 wins over the life of the deal.