Chase Briscoe to JGR
Chase Briscoe has signed with Joe Gibbs Racing. He'll be taking over the #19 from the outgoing Martin Truex Jr. What is JGR getting?
It's official ✍️@ChaseBriscoe_14 is joining the JGR family. Chase will drive the No. 19 @BassProShops Toyota Camry starting in 2025!#NASCAR #TeamToyota pic.twitter.com/WWFaQxpahE
— Joe Gibbs Racing (@JoeGibbsRacing) June 25, 2024
I wrote an article the other day that talks about driver floors and ceilings, and whether drivers are championship or race-winning upside. I had Chase Briscoe in my low-variance category – he's a race winner who can take care of his car but doesn't have championship upside. I'm not sure that's enough for a top team like JGR, but it sounds like that's exactly what Joe Gibbs is looking for!
Joe Gibbs said he wanted a driver with some experience who could win races. Why he thinks Chase Briscoe is that guy. pic.twitter.com/H41WrRzbNv
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) June 25, 2024
There's no doubt that Gibbs is going to get what he wants. Briscoe's a good driver who should be able to deliver a win or two every year. These are his stats on non-drafting ovals:
| Season | Age | Starts | Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | ASP | ARP | AFP | PFAE | GR-LR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 26 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22.13 | 20.41 | 20.06 | 0.028 | -0.01 |
| 2022 | 27 | 29 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13.76 | 15.83 | 16.90 | -0.301 | 0.13 |
| 2023 | 28 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 20.76 | 20.21 | 20.66 | -1.166 | -0.38 |
| 2024 | 29 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14.47 | 16.29 | 16.07 | 1.593 | -0.01 |
As you can see, he probably nets out to a neutral driver in the Cup series. He takes what he gets and finishes where he runs.
In the above video, Gibbs cited Briscoe's nine-win 2020 Xfinity season as a reason to be excited. His Xfinity career:
| Season | Age | Starts | Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | ASP | ARP | AFP | PFAE | GR-LR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15.19 | N/A | 18.38 | -2.108 | N/A |
| 2019 | 24 | 30 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 8.67 | N/A | 7.33 | 5.629 | N/A |
| 2020 | 25 | 29 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 6.62 | 6.77 | 8.00 | 3.768 | 1.42 |
The problem with wins as a stat is only one guy in each race can get a win. There are only ~30 non-draft oval wins to go around in an Xfinity season. The guy who finishes second doesn't get a win, no matter how close he is or how often he's there (ask Sheldon Creed). So it's a flaky stat. When you look at the table above and you shift your eyes to the right, you see most of the other numbers between 2019 and 2020 are close! So why the massive difference in wins? 2019 had eight wins go to Christopher Bell, seven to Cole Custer, and five to Tyler Reddick; in 2020, those 20 wins were dispersed to Briscoe, Austin Cindric, Harrison Burton, Brandon Jones, and Justin Allgaier. Which group has been better in Cup? You can't take those nine wins away from Briscoe, but they don't carry as much weight as the rest of his stat line.
Again using wins, Gibbs speculated that Briscoe could see his career take off like Truex did when Furniture Row allied with JGR. Take a look at Truex's career prior to taking over the #78:
| Season | Age | Wins | ASP | eARP | AFP | PFAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 25 | 0 | 21.22 | 21.11 | 20.78 | 0.794 |
| 2007 | 26 | 1 | 15.17 | 15.10 | 16.36 | 3.035 |
| 2008 | 27 | 0 | 17.14 | 16.67 | 18.25 | 2.505 |
| 2009 | 28 | 0 | 16.39 | 18.74 | 21.86 | -2.237 |
| 2010 | 29 | 0 | 17.14 | 16.84 | 18.75 | 1.410 |
| 2011 | 30 | 0 | 16.81 | 16.62 | 17.72 | 1.844 |
| 2012 | 31 | 0 | 12.06 | 11.22 | 12.11 | 4.809 |
| 2013 | 32 | 1 | 12.33 | 13.48 | 15.06 | 1.526 |
His PFAEs were stronger than Briscoe's have been, indicating he was getting more out of his equipment. To make this comparison is to set Briscoe up for failure from the jump. Truex is a Hall of Fame driver; Briscoe's in year four.
Justin Barber
In the article the other day, I wrote about ambition, and for me, that's what it comes down to. To get a feel for the ambition of this signing, look at who statistically surrounds Briscoe. By average finish, it's Bubba Wallace and Daniel Suarez. By average running position, it's Suarez, Michael McDowell, Erik Jones. By PFAE, it's a similar group. Kyle Busch is in and around there too. The last few years haven't been great for him. This is not a spectacular group of drivers. How would they have been received as signings? Likely: flatly.
Chase Briscoe's a neutral signing. He should win a race or two each year, and it sounds like that will be considered a success by Joe Gibbs Racing.